Estimating the Optimal Inflation Target from Trends in Relative Prices
在包含产品生命周期和商品异质性的模型中，推导出最优通胀目标的闭式解，并利用英国CPI微观数据估计出2016年最优通胀目标为2.6%，发现该目标在过去二十年因相对价格下降加速而持续上升。
We derive closed-form expressions for the optimal inflation target under Calvo and menu-cost frictions in a model featuring a product life cycle and multiple sources of heterogeneity across goods. We show that both frictions deliver the same optimal target and how it can be estimated from observed trends in relative prices. Using micro price data underlying the CPI in the United Kingdom, we document that relative prices fall over the product lifetime in most expenditure items. This causes the optimal inflation target to be positive, with our baseline estimate for the United Kingdom being equal to 2.6 percent in 2016. The optimal target has steadily increased over the prior two decades due to an acceleration in the rates of relative price decline over time.