(S)汽车与大衰退

(S)Cars and the Great Recession

Econometrica · 2022
被引 15
人大 A+FT50ABS 4*

中文导读

研究美国大衰退期间家庭汽车消费骤降现象,发现年轻群体降幅更大,并利用生命周期模型推断衰退源于收入、财富及贷款溢价冲击。

Abstract

United States households' consumption expenditures and car purchases collapsed during the Great Recession and more so than income changes would have predicted. Using CEX data, we show that both the extensive and the intensive car spending margins contracted sharply in the Great Recession. We also document significant cross‐cohort differences in the impact of the Great Recession including a stronger reduction in car spending by younger cohorts. We draw inference on the sources of the Great Recession by investigating which shocks can explain household choices in a 60 period life‐cycle model with idiosyncratic and aggregate shocks fitted to aggregate and life‐cycle moments. We find that the Great Recession was caused by a combination of large aggregate income and wealth shocks, while cross‐cohort adjustment patterns imply a role for life‐cycle income profile shocks. We also find a role for car loan premia shocks in accounting for car spending and car loans.

大衰退汽车消费生命周期模型收入冲击