North American Natural Gas Markets Under LNG Demand Growth and Infrastructure Restrictions
研究了液化天然气需求增长和出口基础设施限制对北美天然气市场的联合影响，通过混合互补模型模拟至2050年，发现即使西海岸无法新建出口终端，液化天然气出口也会转向其他地区，且外部需求推高北美区域价格。
Strong liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand growth, especially in Asia, could increasingly motivate gas infrastructure development in North America. Nevertheless, opposition to new gas infrastructure is formidable in some of the U.S. states and Canadian provinces that are well positioned to supply LNG to the Asian market. In this paper, we investigate the combined effects of LNG demand growth and export infrastructure restrictions on North American natural gas markets through 2050. To do so, we build a mixed complementarity model with endogenous capacity investments. It is parameterized using publicly available data sources. Our results show that even if new export terminals cannot be constructed on the West Coast, LNG exports largely shift to other regions rather than suffer an overall decline. Increasing external demand for LNG puts upward pressure on regional prices in North America, and directs production and pipeline flows toward the regions that export LNG.