Revenue- versus spending-based fiscal consolidation announcements: Multipliers and follow-up
利用1978-2013年13个欧盟国家财政整顿公告的新叙事数据集，通过面板VAR分析发现，基于收入的公告看似更可信，但对经济活动的负面影响大于基于支出的公告，收入乘数较大和后续实际调整幅度较大是主要原因。
Using a new narrative dataset on fiscal consolidation announcements for thirteen EU countries over the period 1978–2013, a panel VAR analysis shows that revenue-based announcements appear more credible, but affect economic activity more adversely than do spending-based announcements. Higher revenue multipliers and, to a lesser extent, larger actual follow-up following a revenue-based announcement help to explain the difference. The uniqueness of our dataset allows to control for anticipation effects of budgetary implementation and variables that respond quickly to news. The main findings are similar if we include in the specification open-economy variables.