The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Supply News: Evidence from OPEC Announcements
利用欧佩克公告和高频数据识别石油供应新闻冲击，发现负面新闻会立即推高油价、降低产量、增加库存，并导致美国经济活动下降、通胀预期上升和美元贬值。
This paper studies how changes in oil supply expectations affect the oil price and the macroeconomy. Using a novel identification design, exploiting institutional features of OPEC and high-frequency data, I identify an oil supply news shock. These shocks have statistically and economically significant effects. Negative news leads to an immediate increase in oil prices, a gradual fall in oil production, and an increase in inventories. This has consequences for the US economy: activity falls, prices and inflation expectations rise, and the dollar depreciates, providing evidence for a strong channel operating through supply expectations.