The Effect of Unsuccessful Past Repurchases on Future Repurchasing Decisions
研究发现，当管理者过去回购股票亏损时，他们未来回购的可能性降低，但过去盈利对回购无显著影响；这种不对称效应在年轻CEO和任期短的CEO中更明显，且过去亏损会通过职业担忧和蛇咬效应产生经济后果。
We find that managers are less likely to repurchase stocks when they lose money on past stock repurchases but find no robust evidence that past gains on repurchases influence future repurchasing activity. This asymmetric sensitivity is strongest for young CEOs and those with the shortest tenure. Also, future repurchases are more sensitive to past repurchase losses for CEOs whose previous lifetime experience with the stock market is unfavorable. The sensitivity of future repurchases to past losses costs firms, on average, about 3.7% per year. When this cost is decomposed into systematic and idiosyncratic components, we find that nearly half (1.8%) comes from mistiming idiosyncratic shocks. Past losses on repurchases have a significant and negative impact on the CEO’s future bonus and increase the likelihood that future CEO termination is involuntary. We also find that negative outcomes from past repurchases encourage the subsequent use of dividends. Our findings suggest that outcomes of past repurchases have economically significant consequences through both nonbehavioral (career concerns) and behavioral (snakebite effect) factors. This paper was accepted by Tyler Shumway, finance.