Long-Run Impacts of Trade Shocks and Export Competitiveness: Evidence from the U.S. BSE Event
研究2003年美国疯牛病爆发对主要牛肉出口国比较优势的长期影响，发现尽管部分指标恢复，但美国牛肉出口竞争力并未回到危机前水平，短期冲击可能造成持久损害。
This paper examines how comparative advantages of major beef exporters changed following the 2003 bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) outbreak, which significantly disrupted the U.S. beef trade until approximately 2007. Using longitudinal data on beef export values and constructed revealed comparative advantage measures, we show that while some measures of the long‐run impacts of BSE on U.S. beef export competitiveness have returned to pre‐2003 levels, the U.S.’s comparative advantage has not. We also examine a hypothetical scenario of no BSE event in 2003 and predict that in the absence of the BSE outbreak, the U.S. beef sector would have been increasingly more competitive by 2017 than it actually was. Long‐term trade competitiveness may not simply return to normal even after a short‐term disruption.