Target insiders' preferences when trading before takeover announcements: Deal completion probability, premium and deal characteristics
研究了2005-2018年美国目标公司内部人在收购谈判期间的信息优势，发现他们能准确判断交易成功概率和最终报价，并偏好特定交易类型。
Abstract We contribute to the M&A literature by characterizing the information available to target insiders during the pre‐public takeover negotiations. We analyze insider trading in target firms in the US between 2005 and 2018. First, we show that signing confidentiality agreements is an important information threshold. Second, insiders have a good grasp of deal success. They increase their net purchases only in deals with higher completion probability. Third, insiders guess the final offer price well, but their trading strategies additionally reflect their knowledge of deal characteristics. They prefer bidder‐initiated, cash, privately negotiated, and strategic deals. Insiders combine several sources of information.