Identification at the Zero Lower Bound
利用零利率下限来识别货币政策的因果效应，通过影子利率模型检验非常规政策的有效性，发现非常规政策有效但不如常规政策。
I show that the zero lower bound (ZLB) on interest rates can be used to identify the causal effects of monetary policy. Identification depends on the extent to which the ZLB limits the efficacy of monetary policy. I propose a simple way to test the efficacy of unconventional policies, modeled via a “shadow rate.” I apply this method to U.S. monetary policy using a three‐equation structural vector autoregressive model of inflation, unemployment, and the Federal Funds rate. I reject the null hypothesis that unconventional monetary policy has no effect at the ZLB, but find some evidence that it is not as effective as conventional monetary policy.