Optimally Imprecise Memory and Biased Forecasts
提出一个受记忆约束的最优决策模型，不同于理性疏忽理论，该模型不假设过去认知状态的无成本记忆，解释了预测和行为的随机变异、平均信念的持续波动以及对新闻的过度反应。
We propose a model of optimal decision-making subject to a memory constraint in the spirit of models of rational inattention. Our theory differs from that of Sims (2003) in not assuming costless memory of past cognitive states. The model implies that both forecasts and actions will exhibit idiosyncratic random variation; that average beliefs will exhibit a bias that fluctuates forever; and that more recent news will be given disproportionate weight in forecasts. The model provides a simple explanation for the overreaction to news observed in the laboratory by Afrouzi et al. (2023).