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揭示顺序分配中的偏见

Uncovering bias in order assignment

Economic Inquiry · 2022
被引 2
人大 BABS 3

中文导读

研究了重复随机排序中是否存在操纵问题,提出了三种检验随机性的通用方法,并应用于强力球彩票号码抽取、美国偶像选手出场顺序和选举候选人排序,发现选举排序中操纵频繁且后果严重。

Abstract

Abstract To mitigate sequencing effects in decision‐making, many situations require a set of items to be considered in a random order. When such orderings are repeated, one can test whether randomization indeed obtains, or whether some orderings have been manipulated in order to achieve a favorable result. This paper articulates the key features of this problem and presents three general tests for randomness. These methods are used to analyze the order in which lottery numbers are drawn in Powerball, contestants perform on American Idol , and candidates are placed on election ballots. This last application features frequent manipulation, with potentially serious consequences.

经济学计量经济学决策科学彩票分析