Recoverability and Expectations-Driven Fluctuations
提出用可恢复性条件替代传统技术条件来识别结构性经济扰动，并应用于美国战后数据，发现未来技术预期的独立扰动是商业周期的主要驱动因素。
Abstract Time series methods for identifying structural economic disturbances often require disturbances to satisfy technical conditions that can be inconsistent with economic theory. We propose replacing these conditions with a less restrictive condition called recoverability, which only requires that the disturbances can be inferred from the observable variables. As an application, we show how shifting attention to recoverability makes it possible to construct new identifying restrictions for technological and expectational disturbances. In a vector autoregressive example using post-war U.S. data, these restrictions imply that independent disturbances to expectations about future technology are a major driver of business cycles.