Structural change in the job matching process in the United States, 1923–1932
研究1923至1932年美国就业匹配过程的结构变化，发现1928年7月和1930年8月两次结构断点，首次断点早于股市崩盘约一年，显示劳动力市场在扩张期已现衰退迹象。
Abstract This paper explores the structural change in the job matching process in the United States from 1923 to 1932. Bai–Perron test is employed with data from public employment offices. The result shows that there are two structural changes, July 1928 and August 1930. The first breakpoint corresponds to approximately a year before the stock market crash, implying that there was a sign of downturn in the labor market when the economy was still in a period of expansion. The second break point is related to the Great Contraction when the entire economy was going in a downward spiral.