From Accounting to Economics: The Role of Aggregate Special Items in Gauging the State of the Economy
研究发现汇总特殊项目比汇总常规收益更能预测未来GDP增长，因为前者及时反映了经济主体行为变化，而专业预测者低估了其信息含量。
ABSTRACT We propose and find that aggregate special items conveys more information about future real GDP growth than aggregate earnings before special items because the former contains advance news about future economic outcomes. A two-stage rational expectations test reveals that professional forecasters fully understand the information content of aggregate earnings before special items, but underestimate that of aggregate special items when revising their GDP forecasts. Using vector autoregressions, we show that aggregate earnings before special items has predictive ability for GDP because, as suggested by previous literature, it acts as a proxy for corporate profits included in national income. In contrast, aggregate special items captures changes in the behavior of economic agents on a timely basis, which, in turn, have real effects on firms' investment and hiring, as well as consumers' wealth and spending. Consistent with news-driven business cycles, we find that aggregate special items produces synchronized movements across macroeconomic aggregates. JEL Classifications: E01; E32; E60; M41.