Behavioral welfare economics and risk preferences: a Bayesian approach
提出用贝叶斯方法估计个人风险偏好，以评估涉及风险的选择的福利，通过保险购买案例展示该方法在规范评价中的优势，并说明分层贝叶斯方法能高效推断福利。
Abstract We propose the use of Bayesian estimation of risk preferences of individuals for applications of behavioral welfare economics to evaluate observed choices that involve risk. Bayesian estimation provides more systematic control of the use of informative priors over inferences about risk preferences for each individual in a sample. We demonstrate that these methods make a difference to the rigorous normative evaluation of decisions in a case study of insurance purchases. We also show that hierarchical Bayesian methods can be used to infer welfare reliably and efficiently even with significantly reduced demands on the number of choices that each subject has to make. Finally, we illustrate the natural use of Bayesian methods in the adaptive evaluation of welfare.