Business Cycle during Structural Change: Arthur Lewis’ Theory from a Neoclassical Perspective
研究发现，随着经济发展，商业周期动态发生系统性变化：在农业部门庞大但萎缩的经济体中，就业与GDP不相关，且繁荣期农业就业下降而劳动生产率上升。文章构建了统一理论，强调资本积累驱动农业现代化与衰退，并用中国数据验证了模型。
Abstract We document that business cycle dynamics change systematically over the course of development. In countries with large but shrinking agricultural sectors, aggregate employment is uncorrelated with GDP, and agricultural employment falls during booms, even as agricultural labour productivity rises. We develop a unified theory of business cycles and structural change that captures these patterns. The theory emphasises the simultaneous decline and modernisation of agriculture, driven by capital accumulation. As agriculture becomes increasingly capital-intensive, traditional practices are crowded out. We estimate the model and show that it accounts for both structural transformation and business cycle fluctuations in China.