Matching theory and evidence on Covid‐19 using a stochastic network SIR model
构建个体随机网络SIR模型，推导感染病例的矩条件以估计传播率和漏报程度，对六个欧洲国家的实证显示实际病例数可能是报告数的4-10倍（2020年10月）和2-3倍（2021年4月），并用于反事实分析社交距离和疫苗接种的影响。
Summary This paper develops an individual‐based stochastic network SIR model for the empirical analysis of the Covid‐19 pandemic. It derives moment conditions for the number of infected and active cases for single as well as multigroup epidemic models. These moment conditions are used to investigate the identification and estimation of the transmission rates. The paper then proposes a method that jointly estimates the transmission rate and the magnitude of under‐reporting of infected cases. Empirical evidence on six European countries matches the simulated outcomes once the under‐reporting of infected cases is addressed. It is estimated that the number of actual cases could be between 4 to 10 times higher than the reported numbers in October 2020 and declined to 2 to 3 times in April 2021. The calibrated models are used in the counterfactual analyses of the impact of social distancing and vaccination on the epidemic evolution and the timing of early interventions in the United Kingdom and Germany.