Rare Disasters, the Natural Interest Rate and Monetary Policy*
利用OECD国家自然灾害数据，评估罕见灾难对自然利率和通胀的影响，发现事前灾难风险类似负需求冲击会永久压低自然利率和通胀，而事后影响取决于供需效应强弱，对货币政策制定有重要参考。
Abstract This article evaluates the impact of rare disasters on the natural interest rate and inflation, and their implications for monetary policy, by using data on natural disasters in OECD countries. Ex‐ante , disaster risk behaves as a negative demand shock and permanently lowers the natural rate and inflation. These effects become larger and nonlinear if the frequency of extreme natural disasters increases. Ex‐post , a disaster realization leads to temporarily higher or lower natural rate and inflation depending on whether supply‐ or demand‐side effects prevail. The article hence shows the importance of disentangling disaster strikes from disaster risk in shaping monetary policy.