The Spatial-Temporal Difference of Driving Effects for Fertilizer Use Intensity Change and Its Determinants in China
基于2004-2011年中国31省数据，测度化肥使用强度变化的驱动效应，发现农业生产结构变化和化肥使用效率共同推动强度上升，且效率贡献更大；驱动效应存在区域差异，东部多为负结构效应，西部多为负强度效应；经济发展、农业结构、人均耕地、技术进步、上年强度、城镇化和耕地质量是显著决定因素。
Reducing fertilizer use intensity is an important measure to promote the construction of agricultural ecological civilization. Based on statistical data of 31 provinces in China during 2004-2011,the paper measures the driving effects of fertilizer use intensity,compares the spatial-temporal differences of these effects,and then analyzes the determinants of fertilizer use intensity. Results can be obtained as follows:( 1) During 2004-2011,the agricultural production structure change and fertilizer use efficiency jointly promote the rise rate of fertilizer use intensity. Meanwhile,the contribution of fertilizer use efficiency was much higher than the contribution of agricultural production structural construction.( 2) The driving effects for fertilizer use intensity change is different from region to region. Most of the eastern area has negative agricultural production structure construction effect,while most of the western area has negative fertilizer utilization intensity effect.( 3) Economic development level,agricultural structure,farmland areas per person,technical progress,fertilizer use intensity of previous cropping year,urbanization development level and farmland quality have significant effects on fertilizer use intensity.