Labor, Demography, and the Export-oriented Growth Model in China
论证中国的人口结构和低城市化率决定了出口导向型增长模式是必然选择，低抚养比和低城市化导致劳动力充裕、收入增长慢，进而推动资本积累和制造业扩张，但国内市场有限，只能靠出口消化产能，预计该模式将持续到2025年。
In this paper the authors argue that the export-oriented growth model is an unavoidable choice for Chi- na given its demographics and low level of urbanization. Low dependency ratio and low urbanization rate jointly determine a large amount of supply of labor and a slow growth of labor income, which in turn leads to fast accu- mulation of capital and the growth of the manufacturing sector. However, the two factors also determine a rela- tively small domestic market, and the only way to clear the market is to export. Judging by the pace of China's demographic transition and urbanization, the paper expects that China's export-oriented model will continue be- tween now and 2025.