Risk, the College Premium, and Aggregate Human Capital Investment
尽管大学教育带来的收入溢价持续高企，但大学入学率仍然较低。本文通过考虑大学辍学风险来解释这一矛盾，发现未入学学生因毕业概率低而对溢价上升不敏感，并预测技能偏向型技术进步主要加剧收入不平等而非提高大学入学率。
Despite increases in the college earnings premium to persistently high levels, investment in college education remains low. We can understand this apparent puzzle by considering the risk of attending college and, in particular, the possibility of failing to graduate. Students with a reasonable probability of completing college already enroll, and for those who do not enroll, the low chance of completion blunts the impact of the rising college premium. In the absence of improved college readiness, our quantitative results suggest that continuing long-standing trends in skill-biased technological change can be expected primarily to increase earnings inequality rather than college attainment.