Min(d)ing the President: A Text Analytic Approach to Measuring Tax News
提出一种文本分析方法，将总统公开讲话转化为税收新闻时间序列，预测未来税改方向与规模，发现长期预期下产出先收缩。
Economic agents react to signals about future tax policy changes. Consequently, estimating their macroeconomic effects requires identification of such signals. We propose a novel text analytic approach for transforming textual information into an economically meaningful time series. Using this method, we create a tax news measure from all publicly available postwar communications of US presidents. Our measure predicts the direction and size of future tax changes and contains signals not present in previously considered (narrative) measures of tax changes. We investigate the effects of tax news and find that, for long anticipation horizons, pre-implementation effects lead initially to contractions in output.