The Long-Term Distributional and Welfare Effects of Covid-19 School Closures
使用结构性生命周期模型，量化了新冠疫情期间学校关闭对不同年龄和家庭背景儿童的长期影响，发现受影响儿童终身收入现值平均损失2.1%，福利损失相当于永久消费的1.2%，且低教育、低资产家庭的儿童受损更严重。
Abstract Using a structural life-cycle model, we quantify the heterogeneous impact of school closures during the corona crisis on children affected at different ages and coming from households with different parental characteristics. In the model, public investment through schooling is combined with parental time and resource investments in the production of child human capital at different stages in the children’s development process. We quantitatively characterise the long-term consequences from a COVID-19-induced loss of schooling, and find average losses in the present discounted value of lifetime earnings of the affected children of $2.1\%$, as well as welfare losses equivalent to about $1.2\%$ of permanent consumption. Because of self-productivity in the human capital production function, younger children are hurt more by the school closures than older children. The negative impact of the crisis on children’s welfare is especially severe for those with parents with low educational attainment and low assets.