The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force, and Productivity
利用美国各州1980-2010年数据，发现60岁以上人口比例每增加10%，人均GDP下降5.5%，其中三分之一源于就业增长放缓，三分之二源于劳动生产率下降。
Population aging is expected to slow US economic growth. We use variation in the predetermined component of population aging across states to estimate the impact of aging on growth in GDP per capita for 1980–2010. We find that each 10 percent increase in the fraction of the population age 60+ decreased per capita GDP by 5.5 percent. One-third of the reduction arose from slower employment growth; two-thirds due to slower labor productivity growth. Labor compensation and wages also declined in response. Our estimate implies population aging reduced the growth rate in GDP per capita by 0.3 percentage points per year during 1980–2010.