Valuing the Global Mortality Consequences of Climate Change Accounting for Adaptation Costs and Benefits
利用40个国家的数据，估计了气温与死亡率之间的U型关系，并发现高收入和适应能缓解这种影响。在高温室气体排放情景下，气候变化导致的全球死亡率增加相当于2100年全球GDP的3.2%，每吨二氧化碳排放造成约36.6美元的死亡相关损失。
Abstract Using 40 countries’ subnational data, we estimate age-specific mortality-temperature relationships and extrapolate them to countries without data today and into a future with climate change. We uncover a U-shaped relationship where extre6me cold and hot temperatures increase mortality rates, especially for the elderly. Critically, this relationship is flattened by higher incomes and adaptation to local climate. Using a revealed-preference approach to recover unobserved adaptation costs, we estimate that the mean global increase in mortality risk due to climate change, accounting for adaptation benefits and costs, is valued at roughly 3.2% of global GDP in 2100 under a high-emissions scenario. Notably, today’s cold locations are projected to benefit, while today’s poor and hot locations have large projected damages. Finally, our central estimates indicate that the release of an additional ton of CO2 today will cause mortality-related damages of $36.6 under a high-emissions scenario, with an interquartile range accounting for both econometric and climate uncertainty of [−$7.8, $73.0]. These empirically grounded estimates exceed the previous literature’s estimates by an order of magnitude.