Union Success in Representation Elections: Why Does Unit Size Matter?
本文研究了美国国家劳资关系委员会监督的工会代表选举活动在过去45年中的四个事实，发现工会在大单位中获胜率更低且差距扩大，并通过模型和实证分析解释了这一模式。
I establish four facts regarding the pattern of NLRB supervised representation election activity over the past 45 years: 1) the quantity of election activity has fallen sharply and discontinuously since the mid-70's after increasing between the mid-1950's and the mid-1970's; 2) union success in elections held has declined less sharply, though continuously, over the entire period; 3) it has always been the case that unions have been less likely to win NLRB-supervised representation elections in large units than in small units; and 4) the size-gap in union success rates has widened substantially over the last forty years.I develop a simple optimizing model of the union decision to hold a representation election that can account for the first three facts.I provide a pair of competing explanations for the fourth fact: one based on differential behavior by employers of different sizes and one purely statistical.I then develop and estimate three empirical models of election outcomes using data on NLRB elections over the 1952-98 time period in order to determine whether the simple statistical model can account for the size pattern of union win rates over time.I conclude that systematic union selection of targets for organization combined with the purely statistical factors can largely account for observed patterns.