Macroeconomic Implications of COVID-19: Can Negative Supply Shocks Cause Demand Shortages?
受COVID-19疫情影响，本文提出凯恩斯供给冲击理论：一个部门的供给冲击通过减少其他部门需求，最终使总产出低于潜在水平，并分析了部门间替代弹性、跨期替代弹性及市场不完全性等条件。
Motivated by the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, we present a theory of Keynesian supply shocks: shocks that reduce potential output in a sector of the economy, but that, by reducing demand in other sectors, ultimately push aggregate activity below potential. A Keynesian supply shock is more likely when the elasticity of substitution between sectors is relatively low, the intertemporal elasticity of substitution is relatively high, and markets are incomplete. Fiscal policy can display a smaller multiplier, but the insurance benefit of fiscal transfers can be enhanced. Firm exits and job destruction can amplify and propagate the shock.