Perceived FOMC: The making of hawks, doves and swingers
研究了美联储FOMC成员的教育背景、出生时期和委员会构成如何影响其政策立场,发现芝加哥学派背景的成员更倾向鹰派,而凯恩斯学派背景且出生在高失业时期的成员更倾向鸽派。
An important and open question in monetary economics is how the Federal Reserve makes its policy decisions. We document that when an FOMC member was born, his/her educational background and the Committee's changing hawk-dove composition have predictable effects on FOMC decisions. The odds of an FOMC member being a hawk are higher when he/she graduated from a university linked to the Chicago school of economics; instead, a dove likely graduated from a university with strong Keynesian beliefs and was born during a period of high unemployment. These findings have implications for the choice of and confirmation of FOMC members.