Inference on Winners
研究了基于估计值选择选项时产生的胜者诅咒问题，提出了消除该偏差的估计量和置信区间，并通过职业培训项目和社区选择案例展示了其经济显著性。
Abstract Policy makers, firms, and researchers often choose among multiple options based on estimates. Sampling error in the estimates used to guide choice leads to a winner’s curse, since we are more likely to select a given option precisely when we overestimate its effectiveness. This winner’s curse biases our estimates for selected options upward and can invalidate conventional confidence intervals. This article develops estimators and confidence intervals that eliminate this winner’s curse. We illustrate our results by studying selection of job-training programs based on estimated earnings effects and selection of neighborhoods based on estimated economic opportunity. We find that our winner’s curse corrections can make an economically significant difference to conclusions but still allow informative inference.