Local sectoral specialization in a warming world
通过两部门动态空间增长模型，量化全球变暖对经济地理和部门专业化的影响，发现高温将推动人口和经济活动向北迁移，农业专业化区域从赤道转向高纬度地区，到2200年实际GDP和效用将分别损失6%和15%。
Abstract This paper quantitatively assesses the world’s changing economic geography and sectoral specialization due to global warming. It proposes a two-sector dynamic spatial growth model that incorporates the relation between economic activity, carbon emissions and temperature. The model is taken to the data at the 1° by 1° resolution for the entire world. Over a 200-year horizon, rising temperatures consistent with emissions under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 push people and economic activity northwards to Siberia, Canada and Scandinavia. Compared with a world without climate change, clusters of agricultural specialization shift from Central Africa, Brazil and India’s Ganges Valley, to Central Asia, parts of China and northern Canada. Equatorial latitudes that lose agriculture specialize more in non-agriculture but, due to their persistently low productivity, lose population. By the year 2200, predicted losses in real GDP and utility are 6% and 15%, respectively. Higher trade costs make adaptation through changes in sectoral specialization more costly, leading to less geographic concentration in agriculture and larger climate-induced migration.