China and Taiwan access to the World Trade Organization: implications for U.S. agriculture and trade
使用可计算一般均衡模型模拟中国和台湾加入WTO的影响，发现中国劳动密集型产品竞争加剧、农产品进口增加，美国农产品出口每年增长约24亿美元。
Abstract This paper investigates the impact of China's and Taiwan's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) on U.S. and world agricultural trade by means of a 12‐region, 14‐sector Computable General Equilibrium model for world trade and production. The simulation results show that integrating China and Taiwan into the global trading system could induce more competition on labor‐intensive Products and reduce their prices. It could drive up the demand for capital and skill‐intensive manufactured goods, thus further improving industrial countries' terms of trade. The expansion of labor‐intensive sectors in China could also induce contraction in agricultural exports from China and increase its net agricultural imports by as much as US$9 billion annually, causing food and agricultural exports from other regions to increase. Total U.S. food and agricultural exports could increase by about US$2.4 billion annually, with the non‐grain crop sectors gaining the most. The biggest winner from China's WTO accession is China itself. WTO membership could bring a net welfare gain of about US$30 billion a year for China, a substantial benefit compared with the gains for the USA (US$8.5 billion).