The future of the elderly population health status: Filling a knowledge gap
利用微观模拟模型预测12个OECD国家未来老年人慢性病患病率、预期寿命及健康不平等趋势，发现欧洲慢性病患病率正追赶美国，且性别和教育梯度演变存在显著异质性，为医疗政策制定提供参考。
The aging process in OECD countries calls for a better understanding of the future disease prevalence, life expectancy (LE) and patterns of inequalities in health outcomes. In this paper we present the results obtained from several dynamic microsimulation models of the Future Elderly Model family for 12 OECD countries, with the aim of reproducing for the first time comparable long-term projections in individual health status across OECD countries. We provide projections of LE and prevalence of major chronic conditions and disabilities, overall, by gender and by education. We find that the prevalence of main chronic conditions in Europe is catching-up with the United States and significant heterogeneity in the evolution of gender and educational gradients. Our findings represent a contribution to support policymakers in designing and implementing effective interventions in the healthcare sector.