Agricultural Development vs. Industrialization: Effects of Trade
本文用动态一般均衡模型研究贸易如何影响国民产品构成及经济增长率，发现若国家只生产初级品和服务，贸易在低收入时促进增长、高收入时减缓增长；若生产制成品和服务，贸易影响不大。
The question addressed in this paper is how trade affects the composition of the national product, thus having an effect on the overall growth rate of the economy. The paper uses a dynamic general equilibrium model with three different consumption goods: agriculture, manufactures, and services (nontradable). The main finding is that if the country produces only primaries and services, the effects of trade on growth are mixed. Trade helps growth at low levels of income but at higher levels trade slows the country's growth. If the country produces manufactures and services, the effect of trade on growth is not substantial.