Talking About Futureproofing: Real Options Reasoning in Complex Infrastructure Projects
通过32个健康地产项目决策者的访谈，研究非正式讨论如何运用实物期权推理为复杂基础设施项目增加灵活性，实现未来防护。
Complex infrastructure projects often attract criticism regarding their short- and long-term performance. An effective development process requires thinking about both present and future requirements. We employed the lens of real options reasoning to investigate the power of verbal theorizing, without the aid of analytical modeling, to add flexibility in the development process. Drawing on 32 semi-structured interviews with decision-makers involved in health estate projects, we examined if and how informal talks in the development process can lead to futureproof outcomes. Our findings synthesize and conceptualize relevant insights on iterative design thinking, affordability, bounded rationality, and motivational gaps as causal mechanisms for futureproofing talks and thus real options reasoning. This article contributes to the planning and project studies literature dealing with futureproofing complex infrastructure projects.