What Drives Firms’ Hiring Decisions? An Asset Pricing Perspective
研究发现美国上市公司总体雇佣率能负向预测股市回报和长期现金流、正向预测短期现金流，且其波动主要由贴现率和短期预期现金流变化驱动，而非长期预期现金流。
Abstract We document that the aggregate hiring rate of publicly traded firms in the U.S. economy negatively predicts stock market returns and long-term cash flows, and positively predicts short-term cash flows. In addition, through a variance decomposition, we show that the time-series variation in the aggregate hiring rate is mainly driven by changes in discount rates and short-term expected cash flows, with no contribution from variation in long-term expected cash flows. We estimate a neoclassical dynamic model with labor market frictions and show that labor adjustment costs and time-varying risk are essential for the model to replicate the empirical patterns. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.