针对难处理似然的稳健广义贝叶斯推断

Robust Generalised Bayesian Inference for Intractable Likelihoods

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B: Statistical Methodology · 2022
被引 44 · 同刊同年前 8%
ABS 4

中文导读

用斯坦因散度作为损失函数进行广义贝叶斯推断,避免计算难处理的归一化常数,得到稳健的后验分布,适用于核指数族和非高斯图模型。

Abstract

Abstract Generalised Bayesian inference updates prior beliefs using a loss function, rather than a likelihood, and can therefore be used to confer robustness against possible mis-specification of the likelihood. Here we consider generalised Bayesian inference with a Stein discrepancy as a loss function, motivated by applications in which the likelihood contains an intractable normalisation constant. In this context, the Stein discrepancy circumvents evaluation of the normalisation constant and produces generalised posteriors that are either closed form or accessible using the standard Markov chain Monte Carlo. On a theoretical level, we show consistency, asymptotic normality, and bias-robustness of the generalised posterior, highlighting how these properties are impacted by the choice of Stein discrepancy. Then, we provide numerical experiments on a range of intractable distributions, including applications to kernel-based exponential family models and non-Gaussian graphical models.

贝叶斯推断稳健性斯坦因散度马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛指数族模型