Revolving versus Convenience Use of Credit Cards: Evidence from U.S. Credit Bureau Data
针对征信数据无法区分当期消费和循环债务的问题，本文用隐藏马尔可夫模型估计消费者每季度循环债务的概率，并发现循环使用者中信用额度增加最终全部转化为债务，且循环状态具有持续性。
Abstract Credit card payments and revolving debt are important for consumer theory but a key data source—credit bureau records—does not distinguish between current charges and revolving debt. We develop a theory‐based econometric methodology using a hidden Markov model to estimate the likelihood a consumer is revolving debt each quarter. We validate our approach using a new survey linked to credit bureau data. We estimate that for likely revolvers: (i) 100% of an increase in credit becomes an increase in debt eventually; (ii) credit limit changes are half as salient as debt changes; and (iii) revolving status is persistent.