Commodity price uncertainty and international trade
实证研究大宗商品价格不确定性对美国及欧元区贸易流的影响，发现其冲击幅度和持续性均大于供需冲击，且对贸易的负面影响与能源不确定性冲击类似。
Abstract We empirically investigate the impact of commodity price uncertainty on US and Euro Area (EA) trade flows. Our results indicate that the response of US and EA trade flows to commodity uncertainty shocks is larger, in magnitude and persistence, when compared with the respective impact of commodity supply and demand shocks. Moreover, our analysis shows that a one-standard deviation shock in commodity price volatility has a higher (in magnitude) and more persistent effect on trade when compared with the respective shocks in exchange rates and commodity prices. Finally, an uncertainty shock in various agricultural and metals markets has a similar negative impact on trade flows to that of energy uncertainty shocks.