EURQ: A New Web Search‐based Uncertainty Index
为美国和意大利构建了经济不确定性相关查询(EURQ)指数,通过大规模网络搜索衡量经济、政治和规范性不确定性,并验证其能捕捉经济主体对信息的需求,而非仅受媒体报道驱动。
Measuring economic uncertainty is extremely important for evaluating its role in economic activity. Nevertheless, measuring uncertainty is a difficult task since we do not know when economic agents perceive uncertainty and which type of uncertainty affects them. This paper introduces the economic uncertainty related queries ( EURQ ) index, computed for both the USA and Italy, which measures economic, political and normative uncertainty through large‐scale searches on the internet. We show that the EURQ index captures economic agents’ need for information in response to uncertainty shocks. Moreover, we show that this need for information is not just curiosity triggered by press coverage but rather captures individuals’ genuine interest, particularly in specific topics subject to uncertainty. Hence the EURQ index can be exploited fruitfully to measure the level of uncertainty perceived by economic agents and to assess the role of specific types of uncertainty in economic activity.