Regional growth and disparities in a post‐COVID Europe: A new normality scenario
构建了后疫情时代的“新常态”情景，利用MASST4模型模拟欧洲NUTS2区域短期GDP损失和2021-2030年经济反弹，发现受疫情重创国家的强劲复苏将缩小区域差异。
This paper addresses the important question "Which European areas will be able to better react to the crisis induced by COVID-19 and how regional disparities will look like?" To provide an answer, a "new normality" scenario is built, comprising the structural changes likely to take place in the aftermath of the COVID pandemic. To develop such scenario, two intermediate steps are necessary, in both cases relying on the use of the latest generation of the MAcroeconomic, Sectoral, Social, Territorial (MASST4) model. First, short-run costs of the COVID-induced lockdowns, in terms of missed GDP, are calculated for all European NUTS2 regions, needed because of the lack of short-run statistics about the extent of the regional costs caused by the lockdowns that will only appear in 2 years. Second, a long-run simulation of the economic rebound expected to take place from 2021 through 2030 is presented, assuming, among other trends, that no further national lockdowns will be undertaken in European countries. In the "new normality" scenario, regional disparity trends will decrease as a result of a decisive rebound of those countries mostly hit by the pandemic.