The role of schools in transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus: quasi-experimental evidence from Germany
利用德国16个州暑假和秋假起止时间的差异，采用双重差分法发现学校关闭对儿童感染率无显著遏制作用，也无向老年人的溢出效应，且假期末儿童感染增加与旅行返回有关。
Abstract This paper considers the role of school closures in the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. To isolate the impact of the closures from other containment measures and identify a causal effect, we exploit variation in the start and end dates of the summer and fall school holidays across the 16 federal states in Germany using a difference-in-differences design with staggered adoption. We show that neither the summer closures nor the closures in the fall had a significant containing effect on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 among children or a spill-over effect on older generations. There is also no evidence that the return to school at full capacity after the summer holidays increased infections among children or adults. Instead, we find that the number of children infected increased during the last weeks of the summer holiday and decreased in the first weeks after schools reopened, a pattern we attribute to travel returnees.