Sinning in the Rain: Weather Shocks, Church Attendance, and Crime
利用1980-2016年美国县级面板数据，以教堂礼拜时间降雨作为准自然实验，发现教堂出席减少会显著增加毒品、酒精及白领犯罪，但对暴力与财产犯罪无影响，且效应在宗教氛围更浓的县更强。
Abstract This paper provides evidence of the causal effect of church attendance on petty crime by using quasi-random variation in the number of Sundays when it precipitated at the specific time of most religious services. Using a novel strategy, I find a narrow time window when most individuals attend church. Based on a panel between 1980 and 2016, I find that one more Sunday with precipitation at the time of church increases yearly drug-related, alcohol-related, and white-collar crimes. I do not find an effect for violent or property crimes. These effects are driven by more religious counties. Previous evidence showing negative effects of church attendance on the demand for alcohol and drugs is consistent with a demand-driven interpretation of the results presented.