Barbara Osimani’s Contribution to the Discussion of ‘Testing by betting: A strategy for statistical and scientific communication’ by Glenn Shafer
本文介绍了一种通过报告对零假设打赌的结果来替代p值的统计证据报告方法，该方法更简单易懂，并提出了似然、检验力和置信区间的新角色，以及适用于计划性和机会性检验的元分析框架。
The most widely used concept of statistical inference-the p -value-is too complicated for effective communication to a wide audience (Gigerenzer, 2018 ; McShane & Gal, 2017 ).This paper introduces a simpler way of reporting statistical evidence: report the outcome of a bet against the null hypothesis.This leads to a new role for likelihood, to alternatives to power and confidence, and to a framework for meta-analysis that accommodates both planned and opportunistic testing of statistical hypotheses and probabilistic forecasts.Testing a hypothesized probability distribution by betting is straightforward.We select a nonnegative payoff and buy it for its hypothesized expected value.If this bet multiplies the money it risks by a large factor, we have evidence against the hypothesis, and the factor measures the strength of this evidence.Multiplying our money by 5 might merit attention; multiplying it by 100 or by 1000 might be considered conclusive.