Does the Individual Mandate Affect Insurance Coverage? Evidence from Tax Returns
利用纳税申报数据和断点回归设计，研究发现ACA个人强制令的实际罚款低于法定金额，且对保险覆盖有显著但量级较小的响应，尤其男性反应更明显。
We estimate the effect of the ACA’s individual mandate on insurance coverage using regression discontinuity and regression kink designs with tax return data. We have four key results. First, the actual penalty paid per uninsured month is less than half the statutory amount. Second, nonetheless, we find visually clear and statistically signifi-cant responses to both extensive margin exposure to the mandate and to marginal increases in the mandate penalty. Third, we find substantial heterogeneity in who responds; men are especially responsive. Fourth, our estimates imply fairly small quantitative responses to the individual mandate, especially in the Health Insurance Exchanges.