Strategic Trading When Central Bank Intervention Is Predictable
研究当央行依据市场价格进行干预时，大型策略投资者会压低价格以诱导央行支持市场，导致干预前后价格呈V型走势。
Abstract Market prices are noisy signals of economic fundamentals. In a two-period model, we show that if the central bank uses market prices as guidance for intervention, large strategic investors who benefit from high prices would depress market prices to induce a market-supportive intervention. Stronger anticipated interventions lead to deeper price depressions preintervention and sharper price reversals post-intervention. The central bank intervention harms strategic investors even though it is the investors who tried to mislead the central bank. The model predicts a V-shaped price pattern around central bank interventions, consistent with recent evidence.