Can the Consumption–Wealth Ratio Predict Housing Returns? Evidence from OECD Countries
研究了消费与财富、劳动收入的暂时偏离（cay）与住房风险溢价的关系，基于15个OECD国家数据发现，当金融和住房资产互补时，消费上升预示住房回报上升；替代时则相反。
Abstract We use a representative consumer model to analyze the relation between the transitory deviations of consumption from its common trend with aggregate wealth and labor income, cay , and the housing risk premium. The evidence based on data for 15 OECD countries shows that, if financial and housing assets are seen as complements, investors will temporarily allow consumption to rise when they expect a rise in future housing returns. By contrast, if housing assets are treated as substitutes for financial assets, consumption will be reduced.