Pandemics and regional economic growth: evidence from the Great Influenza in Italy
研究了1918年大流感对意大利区域经济增长的影响，发现死亡率最高的地区人均GDP增长率下降6.5%，但影响在3年内消失，为无公共卫生干预时大流行病的负面效应提供了上限估计。
Abstract We investigate the link between the 1918 Great Influenza and regional economic growth in Italy, a country in which the measures implemented by public authorities to contain the contagion were limited or ineffective. The pandemic caused 600,000 deaths in Italy: 1.2% of the population. Going from regions with the lowest mortality to those with the highest mortality is associated to a decline in per capita GDP growth of 6.5%, which dissipated within 3 years. Our estimates provide an upper bound of the adverse effect of pandemics on regional economic growth in the absence of non-pharmaceutical public-health interventions.