Regional GDP Distortion and Analyst Forecast Accuracy: Evidence from China
研究发现中国区域GDP数据失真会降低分析师盈利预测的准确性，但拥有信息优势的分析师能抵御失真数据的影响，政治压力也是导致预测不准的因素。
The reliability of China’s GDP data has been questioned for a long time. Prior studies have discussed the causes of GDP distortion in China, but the evidence on the economic consequences is scant. This paper examines the economic consequences of regional GDP distortion from the perspective of analyst forecasts. We find that regional GDP distortion leads to lower analyst forecast accuracy, and this result is robust to potential endogeneity. Further investigations show that analysts with information advantages have the ability to resist the distorted GDP data and issue accurate forecasts. Political pressure is another factor leading to inaccurate analyst forecasts. Our paper contributes to the literature by highlighting the importance of the reliability of GDP figures as a determinant of analyst forecast accuracy.