The Effect of Trade on Workers and Voters
研究德国数据发现，来自低工资国家的进口增加会提升对民族主义政党的支持，而出口增加则相反；低技能制造业工人的政治偏好对贸易冲击最敏感，劳动力市场调整是贸易影响投票的经济机制。
Abstract We investigate economic causes of the rising support of populist parties in industrialised countries. Looking at Germany, we find that exposure to imports from low-wage countries increases the support for nationalist parties between 1987–2009, while increasing exports have the opposite effect. The net effect translates into increasing support of the right-populist Alternative for Germany party after its emergence in 2013. Individual data from the German Socio-Economic Panel reveal that low-skilled manufacturing workers’ political preferences are most responsive to trade exposure. Using a novel approach to causal mediation analysis, we identify trade-induced labour market adjustments as an economic mechanism causing the voting response to international trade.