What if? Fine-tuning the expectations of business simulation technology through the lens of philosophical counterfactual analysis
借助分析哲学中关于反事实的文献，识别出模拟的三个功能（培训、咨询和预测），并探讨其本体论和认识论假设如何限制模拟对现实的再现，旨在调整学者和实践者对模拟的期望。
Great technological leaps in computational capacity and machine autonomy have increased the business community’s expectations of simulators. In joining the conversation on simulators’ ability to reproduce the reality of actual, possible, past, and future worlds, this paper draws on the literature in analytical philosophy on counterfactuals. It identifies three functions of simulations (training, advising, and forecasting) and further inquires into their ontological and epistemological assumptions to show how they limit the quest for reality of higher-performance simulators in each of these three areas. This argument is not only meant to contribute to adjusting scholars’ and practitioners’ expectations and uses of simulations; it also calls for a more in-depth and critical study of the social implications of relying on them.